July 2026 in returns

Halfway through July, the market's leadership board has flipped. Crypto, left for dead after June's rout, has come roaring back — Bitcoin is up 12.8% month-to-date and Ethereum a striking 23.0%, with breadth to match: 143 of the 205 coins we track (70%) are green. Equities are the mirror image. The headline indices are soft — the Nasdaq is off 2.0%, the S&P 500 flat, and Japan's Nikkei down a hard 5.5% — yet 57% of individual stocks are still higher, a tell that this is a rotation, not a retreat.

And what a rotation. The AI-hardware and space-momentum trade that led the tape all spring is unwinding violently — Corning, up 41% in June, is now the single worst name on the board at -40%; Sandisk is -30%, Astera Labs -31%, and Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile both around -30%, with even June's chip darling Marvell (-29%) rolling over. Where the money went has a real-world driver this time: a late-month energy shock. As a tanker was struck off Saudi Arabia and Washington escalated its threats over the Strait of Hormuz, crude pushed past $85 and the energy complex ran with it — Brent and WTI futures up 27-32%, Phillips 66 +25%, Marathon Petroleum +24% — while beaten-down value like PayPal (+29%) drew bids. That same oil-and-rates backdrop finally reached crypto in the month's closing days, with Bitcoin slipping from a one-month high as inflation worries resurfaced; Tesla, still holding an 11,509-BTC treasury, booked a $112M impairment on it alongside an earnings miss. This is what a narrow, momentum-led market looks like when it broadens the painful way — knocking down the leaders to let energy and value catch up.