March 2025 in returns

March 2025 was the month the selling reached equities properly. The Nasdaq fell 8.2%, the S&P 500 5.8%, Nvidia 13.2%, and only 285 of 867 stocks (33%) finished higher. Crypto stayed broken — 10 of 85 coins green (12%) — with Ethereum down 18.6% and Solana 15.9%, though Bitcoin's 2.1% decline was almost stoic given what surrounded it. Gold rose 9.4%, the clearest single statement of the month: when the metal is the strongest major asset in the record, capital is not hunting returns, it is looking for somewhere to wait.

The leadership confirmed it. Rheinmetall gained 31.1% for a second consecutive month and Fresnillo 26.1%, joined by Dollar General (+18.5%), Huntington Ingalls (+16.2%) and Endeavour Mining (+17.9%) — defence, precious metals and deep-discount retail, three of the few places a defensive investor has ever been able to hide. The punished were last year's growth complex, and severely: Nebius -35.0%, MongoDB -34.4%, Marvell -32.9%, Credo -27.2%, Celestica -26.4%, alongside airlines (Delta -27.5%, United -26.4%). Crypto's tail was worse still, Pi down 66.5% and Kaito 48.7%. Nothing about March suggested a market pricing a specific event; it looked like one systematically reducing exposure to everything it had recently loved.