January 2025 in returns

January 2025 was a strong month for equities almost everywhere except the one stock the market cared about most. 669 of 866 stocks finished green (77%, the second-broadest reading in this record), Germany's DAX gained 9.2%, the FTSE 100 6.1% and the Dow 4.7% — and Nvidia fell 10.6%. An advance that wide with the AI bellwether that weak is a rotation away from a single crowded position rather than a change in risk appetite, and the leaderboard agrees: Robinhood +39.4%, Twilio +35.6%, Constellation Energy +34.1%, Celestica +33.8%, Arm +29.3% and Cloudflare +28.5% share no theme beyond not being the trade everyone already owned.

Crypto split along the same lines. Bitcoin rose 9.5% and Solana 22.4% while Ethereum slipped 1.1%, and participation was poor at 29 of 82 coins (35%) — the older large-caps worked (XRP +45.7%, Chainlink +25.7%, Stellar +24.5%, Litecoin +24.0%) and the speculative tail was punished hard (Pudgy Penguins -55.6%, dogwifhat -39.0%, Pepe -30.6%). Utilities were the month's clearest casualty, Edison International falling 31.6% and PG&E 22.4%. Beneath a comfortable headline, the market was already sorting winners from passengers — and February would show how little patience it had left for the latter.